11 October Future energy scenarios for an industry in transition October 11, 2021 By AMPLA Admin General, Mining, Resources and Energy 0 Future energy scenarios for an industry in transition With the push to achieve net-zero emissions, the energy industry is in a state of significant transition. What the future looks like and how it will impact organisations within it is open to debate. Recently the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) conducted collaborative research through workshops, public forums and webinars to get feedback from stakeholders to help them identify five possible future energy scenarios. This information was published in AEMO’s 2021 Inputs, Assumptions and Scenarios Report that will be used to develop their 2022 Integrated System Plan. Given the level of uncertainty in the industry, scenario planning provides an effective means to identify and plan for investment and business risks by testing sensitivity to certain factors. The scenarios take key uncertainties into account while focusing on material drivers of change. The future energy scenarios take into account not only decarbonisation but also economic and technological factors that are expected to change in the future. This includes the level of consumer investment in distributed energy, increased electrification and growth in the transport industry. Five scenarios were identified: 1. Slow Change The global pandemic has brought unprecedented challenges to the industry. This scenario takes a conservative approach to managing change in coming years with the continued risk of industrial load closures and slowed action on decarbonisation. At the same time consumers seek to manage their energy costs through distributed energy resources like photovoltaics. 2. Steady Progress In this scenario, existing government policy is coupled with corporate abatement goals, reduction in the cost of technology and the growth of consumer investments in photovoltaic energy. With cost still a significant factor, renewable generation complemented by firming capacity is the primary means to replace coal. 3. Net Zero 2050 Technology leads the way in this scenario with a focus on emission abatement based on research and development. Commercially viable low-emission technologies deployed in the 2030s and 2040s, supported by government policy and tighter emission targets that focus on the entire economy drive the shift. Consumers switch primarily to electricity to power their lives, from vehicles to home heating. 4. Step Change Global commitments change significantly driving consumer-led transformation across the economy. This change is supported by the falling cost of energy production for consumers and increased digitisation to help people and businesses manage their energy use and enable greater grid flexibility. 5. Hydrogen Superpower This scenario looks at what is required for Australia to become a true hydrogen superpower in the export economy. Developments in manufacturing and transport are leveraged to drive hydrogen production, coupled with global action to reduce emissions. While electricity continues to power homes, gas is progressively replaced with hydrogen as appliances are upgraded. The report provides insights to assist both policymakers and investors to make efficient decisions about the generation, transmission and storage of energy. The final 2022 Integrated System Plan will be delivered in June next year, with a draft expected to be released in December 2021. Related Articles Energy industry and government response to COVID-19 In response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis, government and industry have come together to ensure the community, economy and industry are supported. The Council of Australian Governments Energy Council (COAG Energy Council) has formed the Energy Coordination Mechanism (ECM) which is expected to have a complete plan by the end of April. The immediate focus of these efforts has been on four areas Submission - DISER Consultation Paper December 2020 ‘Enhancing Australia’s decommissioning framework for offshore oil and gas activities’ The impact of coronavirus on the energy and resources industry The last few weeks have seen the world face an unprecedented disruption with the novel coronavirus (COVID-19). First reported in China, we’re now seeing many countries shutting down for periods of time to try to contain the spread of the virus. Australia is facing a particularly difficult year given the bushfires that ravaged the country recently. Now with COVID-19 adding to the pain, the energy and resources industry is being impacted in several ways outlined below. The states boost the energy and resources sector This year will be remembered for the many challenges that it brought to both individuals and industry. As Australia starts to return to some normality, many states are looking to boost industry, increase jobs and innovate for the future. In this article, we look at various state initiatives designed to boost the energy and resources sector. Why hydrogen is becoming an important energy source Hydrogen as an energy source continues to grow in popularity. Once confined to industrial processes such as refining crude oil, it is now being recognised as a potential solution to the problems of electricity generation, transportation and storage. Over the next thirty years, global energy demand is predicted to grow by at least 30-40%. At the same time, the share of energy generated from fossil fuels has stayed almost static at 81%. While renewable energy technologies such as solar and wind are getting cheaper, they can only be generated on an intermittent basis. To make them commercially practical to use, they must be combined with high-energy batteries and backed with other energy sources. The States continue to invest in the industry As a testament to the importance of the energy and resources industry to the economy and job growth, State governments continue to invest in the industry as part of their COVID-19 recovery plans Showing 0 Comment Comments are closed.