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Overview of the Government’s Resources and Energy Report

The Department of Industry, Science and Resources recently published its quarterly report on Resources and Energy. The report includes forecasts from the Office of the Chief Economist on the value, volume and price of major Australian resources and energy commodity exports.

The Department of Industry, Science and Resources recently published its quarterly report on Resources and Energy. The report includes forecasts from the Office of the Chief Economist on the value, volume and price of major Australian resources and energy commodity exports. 

According to the report, forecasts continue to be down from prior years due to the impact of the Russia/Ukraine war that is continuing to increase the vulnerability of gas, LNG and coal prices due to supply outages and demand spikes. Inflation is also continuing to result in tighter financial conditions in Western economies. Despite the issues affecting the world economy, conditions haven’t slowed as sharply as expected. The IMF estimates global economic growth to achieve 2.9% in 2024, with developing and emerging market economies to grow at a faster rate than their developed counterparts. Unemployment continues to remain low globally and this is sustaining consumption. 
Australia’s mining sector remains strong, contributing about 13.4% of GDP and making up more than two thirds of Australia’s total merchandise exports. The sector employs about 300,000 people directly. Investment in mining continues to grow, with $12.9 billion invested in the September quarter 2023, up 22% from the prior year. The investment was primarily in oil, gas and critical minerals. Exploration expenditure also increased by 6% to $1.04 billion in the quarter. With exploration rising it’s a good indicator of broader capital investment in the future. 

In 2023-24, Australia’s export values are expected to be $408 billion, down from $466 billion in the prior year. This is driven in part by a fall in prices and offset by a small rise in export volumes. Energy exports are expected to fall the sharpest driven by LNG and thermal coal exports. Iron ore is expected to still earn $131 billion and Australia will continue to be the largest producer of iron ore in the world. 
While the price of uranium has surged recently, supply problems are resulting in hoarding with several nations considering uranium to be an important component of meeting their net zero targets. The price for lithium has fallen due to concerns about the short term demand for electric vehicles and the ongoing increase in supply. However, export volumes for Australian lithium are expected to grow as competition in the market heats up. 
Overall indicators look largely positive, the outlook for some of Australia’s major trading partners does remain relatively weak. GDP growth in 2024 and 2025 is forecast to be 3.1% by the RBA, which is below pre-pandemic averages. This in turn is likely to slow demand for Australian exports. Japan and South Korea are both showing signs of slower growth with weaker consumer demand and confidence. Some bright lights do exist, with China maintaining its demand for resource and energy commodities and India showing signs of continued development. While the US has also remained relatively strong, it is showing signs of softening with unemployment on the rise.
Overall, expectations over the quarter are better than expected. But some unknown factors may continue to impact performance - particularly global political conditions and uncertain climatic conditions. As we hope for greater stability to bring more certainty to the sector, only time will tell. 

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