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What the sector can expect under a Trump presidency

On November 5, Trump was re-elected President of the United States. His term will commence in January 2025, but he has already begun putting in place plans for his administration. It is expected that Trump will make significant changes to several areas of policy that impact the energy and resources sector.

Trump has called the environment “one of the greatest scams of all time”, so it’s to be expected that climate policy will be high on his agenda. Trump withdrew the United States from the Paris Agreement in his last term, and it’s expected that he will do the same in 2025. In 2016 climate related disclosures were also rolled back under President Trump and it’s anticipated that this will happen again under his new administration, but this will of course depend on who is appointed to head the Securities Exchange Commission. The aim of any disclosure rollback will be to encourage investors and economic activity. 

While Federal laws may change, state laws will not be impacted. This means climate disclosure legislation in California and the states are likely to continue. In addition, US companies operating internationally will still be required to abide by reporting and disclosure laws where they operate including in the European Union and Australia. 

Other Biden initiatives may also be rolled back including the Environmental Protection Agency’s Risk Management Program regulations, the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and the Inflation Reduction Act. This would potentially impact grants and tax incentives for wind, solar, utility storage batteries and transmission lines. Biden also paused the export of LNG and this may be rolled back under a Trump Administration. It’s not clear if approved renewable energy will be impacted and there is also uncertainty over carbon capture projects.  

The fate of litigation that is pending is also unclear, this covers several issues including the Environmental Protection Agency’s methane rule that targets the oil and gas industry. It’s likely that the Trump administration will stay these actions for a period of time while it determines its position. 

The Trump administration is expected to boost supply of federal land for new oil and gas leases and pipelines. It’s also anticipated that increased oil production will be supported under the incoming administration and support for nuclear energy may be increased as well. In addition, hurdles to natural gas pipelines are likely to be lifted so that production can increase. 

Transport and infrastructure is likely to be the recipient of investment, but it’s not clear if this would include electric vehicle infrastructure. Tesla’s Elon Musk is expected to be heavily involved in the Trump administration, so it’s possible that electric vehicle infrastructure will receive a positive boost.

 Trade is another key area that may be impacted by the Trump administration with a 60% increase in  tariffs from China a  prominent issue in the election. This is likely to result in a trade dispute with China and impact the US export market. Other countries are also expected to be subject to a 20% increase in tariffs, whether this will include Australia is yet to be seen. The tariffs are likely to increase the cost of inputs resulting in pressure on supply chains and prices in the United States, with a potential flow on effect globally. 

In addition, loosening rules around emissions could impact US exporters who are subject to emission requirements from other countries.  To boost US oil the administration may also look to introduce sanctions on other oil producers including Iran and Venezuela.

Taxation is also high on the GOP’s agenda with the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act expiring in 2025. While the corporate tax rate won’t automatically increase in 2025, it does raise the opportunity for the Government to consider how to balance a low corporate tax rate with increased costs and debts. One of Trump’s platforms at the election was to reduce the size of Government, and this may ensure costs are balanced without requiring an increase of the corporate tax rate. 

We still have a couple of months before the administration commences, but one thing is certain, there will be plenty of change in the United States and globally over the next four years.  
 

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